A big increase in single households could help drive another house price bubble after the economy recovers, a new survey suggests.
Another 2 million households
Nearly two million single people will have their own homes for the first time by 2020 if they can, according to research carried out for Lloyds TSB Insurance. The proportion of single households has already escalated in the last four decades – nearly doubling from 17% of households in 1972 to 30% in 2001. If the survey's predictions are correct, this will rise further to more than one in three homes by 2019.
Young adults are increasingly choosing to live on their own, when they can afford to do so. The main reason is a desire to have their own space. Other factors include the rising number of divorces and separations.
It's the young professionals
The trend is particularly clear amongst young professionals. Already 60% of households in the City of London are occupied by just one person, and this will rise to 64% in the next decade, the survey suggests. Other places seeing strong demand for single households include prime London areas such as Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea; major regional centres including Manchester, Liverpool and Nottingham; and seaside towns, such as Southend, Hastings, Brighton and Blackpool.
Young men are more likely to want to live on their own than are young women – but this, too, is changing. At present, 15% of men in the 25 to 44 age group live alone, which is set to increase to about 17% by 2019. In the same age range, 10% of women at present live on their own, which is expected to rise to 12% by the end of the next decade.
Figures published by the Government last year demonstrated that the growing number of single person households was the biggest factor in the growth in housing demand. It is responsible for about 70% of household growth, according to the Department for Communities and Local Government.
The elderly, too
But the Government's figures stressed that the rise in single elderly was also a major cause for this growth. More than a third of single households consist of people aged over 65. Net international migration was, at that time, the cause of slightly less than a third of new households – but the recession may have reduced this demand significantly since then.
Demand from single people for homes is not only reflected in pressures on the owner-occupied sector. It is also a factor in the growing waiting list for rented housing accommodation, says the National Housing Federation. It has just published figures showing that the waiting list for social housing is expected to jump by another 200,000 households by 2011, bumping up the total seeking homes to more than two million. This is twice the level of 2001.
A spokesman for the Federation explains: "People are living longer, they're delaying getting married and they're more likely to get divorced – meaning we now have more households than ever. Demand for social housing is, in part, being fuelled by demographic changes. Over 220,000 households are expected to form each year up to 2026, and many of those will be single people."
Different types of homes wanted
Research from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation published two years ago warned that the trend towards single living has serious implications for a range of policies, including urban planning and housing design. It also means more city centre living, a fall in average disposable income and greater social isolation.
Lloyd TSB Insurance warns that the growth in single person households is also likely to provoke an increase in crime. It says that homes occupied by just one individual are over 50% more likely to be burgled.